Pied flycatchers are western Britain woodland specialists that have declined due to phenological mismatch between chick hatching and caterpillar peaks.
Pied flycatcher welfare is directly affected by the match between chick hatching and caterpillar availability. Chicks hatched after the caterpillar peak receive less food per foraging trip, growing more slowly with reduced immune function and survival probability. The phenological mismatch is widening as caterpillar peaks advance faster than flycatcher breeding timing can adjust. Individual pairs that successfully match their breeding to caterpillar availability in a given year achieve good welfare outcomes, while those that miss the peak experience failed or reduced productivity with associated welfare costs of repeated provisioning for less reward.