Macaroni penguins are the most numerous penguin species but have declined by approximately 30% since the 1990s due to prey availability changes linked to ocean warming, making them a sentinel species for Southern Ocean ecosystem health.
Macaroni penguins experiencing prey shortfalls must make longer and deeper foraging trips to find sufficient food, increasing energetic expenditure during the critical breeding period. Chicks that receive insufficient krill deliveries are underweight at fledging and have reduced survival prospects. Adults in poor body condition have lower immune function and greater susceptibility to disease. Extended foraging trips increase the risk of predation by leopard seals. Climate-driven changes to the timing of krill availability can mismatch with the fixed breeding calendar of penguins, causing chick deaths even when krill are ultimately available. The scale of population decline despite their large numbers reflects broad-scale ecosystem disruption.