Wolverine conservation scenarios range from extinction to recovery depending on climate policy, habitat protection, and trapping regulation choices made in the coming decades.
The welfare of future wolverine populations is determined by decisions being made now about climate policy, land use, and legal protection. Under optimistic scenarios where climate change is limited and habitat connectivity maintained, wolverine populations can persist and potentially recover throughout much of their historic range. Under pessimistic scenarios, wolverines may be reduced to small, isolated populations in highest-elevation climate refugia with severely compromised individual welfare from nutritional stress, inbreeding, and predation. Conservation investments including ESA protections, trapping restrictions, wilderness designations, and climate policy have multiplicative welfare benefits across the entire population for decades. The urgency of wolverine conservation reflects both the welfare importance of avoiding population collapse and the narrowing window of opportunity for effective intervention.