Polar bears face an existential threat from climate change. Their welfare as wild animals depends on sea ice that is disappearing at an accelerating rate.
Polar bear welfare is inseparable from climate policy — the most meaningful welfare intervention for polar bears is reducing greenhouse gas emissions. As sea ice declines, bears experience progressively longer fasting periods between hunting seasons, depleting fat reserves needed for reproduction and survival. Pregnant females in poor condition produce smaller cubs with lower survival rates. Bears venturing into human settlements in search of food face harassment, capture, and death. The welfare trajectory for polar bears under current emission trajectories is one of progressive deterioration — declining body condition, reduced reproductive success, and increasing conflict mortality. Short-term management (deterrence, relocation, supplemental feeding) can reduce some conflict mortality but cannot substitute for the sea ice that defines polar bear ecology.